建立和验证一个预测模型的小脆弱的新生儿:一个回顾性研究研究
Chengqi Xiao1,2, Chuangchuang Xu1,2, Lijun Zhang1
1The International Peace Maternity and Child Health Hospital, School of Medicine, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China.
Journal of global health
|December 4, 2025
概括
小的脆弱新生儿的发病率正在增加. 一个预测模型识别了诸如多胎妊娠和母亲的BMI等高风险因素,以帮助早期干预并降低新生儿死亡率.
科学领域:
- 围产儿医学 围产儿医学
- 孕产妇和胎儿医学 孕产妇和胎儿医学
- 新生儿健康 新生儿健康
背景情况:
- 小的易受伤害的新生儿 (早产,低出生体重,对于妊娠年龄来说小) 是围产死亡的主要原因.
- 识别高风险因素对于有效干预至关重要.
- 进行了回顾性分析,以开发这些新生儿的预测模型.
研究的目的:
- 确定与小的脆弱新生儿相关的重大风险因素.
- 开发和验证用于识别高风险怀孕的预测模型.
- 促进有针对性的干预措施,以改善新生儿结果.
主要方法:
- 对129,554名孕妇 (2015-2023) 的临床数据进行了回顾性分析.
- 使用单变量分析和吉尼指数选潜在的风险因素.
- 开发使用LASSO回归和内部验证的预测名录.
主要成果:
- 小脆弱新生儿的发病率从2015年的10.15%增加到2023年的11.61%.
- 确定了关键的风险因素:多胎妊娠 (OR=37.2),怀孕前的低/高BMI,母亲的极端年龄,高血压疾病和胎盘疾病.
- 预测模型显示出强的表现 (AUC=0.873).
结论:
- 小脆弱新生儿的发病率显著增加,特别是在2021-2023年期间.
- 一个经过验证的预测模型,包括母亲的年龄,BMI,怀孕状态和特定疾病,可以识别第三季度的高风险怀孕.
- 这种模式支持有针对性的干预措施,以减少新生儿死亡率和并发症.
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