印度河盆地气候敏感的耕地动态:一个全面的SDM评估与季内变化
Fatima Ilyas1, Muhammad Azmat1, Swera Javed1
1School of Civil and Environmental Engineering (SCEE), National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST), Islamabad, 44000, Pakistan.
The Science of the total environment
|December 4, 2025
概括
气候变化将改变巴基斯坦的印度河平原的作物适用性. 预测小麦,大米,棉花,玉米和甘的转变对于粮食安全和适应战略至关重要.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 气候变化通过改变作物适用性,对全球粮食安全构成重大风险.
- 印度河平原是巴基斯坦一个重要的农业地区,由于气候条件的变化,印度河平原面临着对其主要作物的潜在影响.
研究的目的:
- 在未来的气候变化场景下,预测印度河平原五大作物 (小麦,大米,棉花,甘,玉米) 适用的空间和时间变化.
- 确定关键的气候变量和影响不同现象阶段作物适合性的海拔.
主要方法:
- 采用了综合物种分布建模 (SDM) 方法.
- 根据共享社会经济路径 (SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5) 的CMIP6气候预测用于基线,近期和远期.
- 分析了特定于现象阶段的气候变量和作物发生点.
主要成果:
- 农作物适应性受到高度和现象特异性气候变量 (温度,降水) 的显著影响.
- 预计大米和棉花的适用性最初会下降,然后在以后增加,在辛德邦和旁遮普邦南部的适合区缩小.
- 预计在短期内,玉米的适用性将保持稳定或增加,但稍后会下降,地区从旁遮普省转移到开伯尔巴赫图肯瓦省.
- 预计小麦的适用性将下降,特别是在更高的排放场景下,而甘面临着与棉花相似的影响.
结论:
- 预计气候变化将大大改变印度河平原的作物适用性,区域差异很大.
- 高温,热浪和降雨模式的改变对作物种植构成重大风险,需要适应性作物种植模式和水资源管理.
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