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相关概念视频

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相关实验视频

Updated: Jan 9, 2026

Online Repetitive Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation of Dorsomedial and Dorsolateral Prefrontal Cortex in Cognition Decision Making, and Cognitive Dissonance
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愿望预测背后的认知机制:一个扩散模型分解.

Jeremy D Strueder1, Inkyung Park1, J Toby Mordkoff1

  • 1Department of Psychological and Brain Sciences, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA, USA.

Cognition
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概括

愿望思维,或可取性偏见,通过减少预期结果所需的证据来膨胀期望. 这种认知偏见也影响人们如何解释证据,证明了对动机推理的自上而下的影响.

关键词:
理想性偏见是一种偏见.漂移-扩散建模的模型.有动机的推理推理.预测 预测 预测不确定性 不确定性一个愿望的想法.

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科学领域:

  • 认知心理学 认知心理学
  • 决策科学 决策科学 决策科学
  • 行为经济学是一种行为经济学.

背景情况:

  • 愿望思维,或可取性偏见,发生在一个结果的愿望增加其发生的预期时.
  • 以前的研究表明,结果的可取性会影响预测,但认知机制仍然不清楚.
  • 潜在的机制包括有偏见的证据判断或有偏见的证据搜索和积累.

研究的目的:

  • 使用漂移-扩散建模研究潜在的可取性偏见的认知机制.
  • 确定在哪些处理级别的可取性对预测产生影响.
  • 检查可取性如何影响证据判断和积累.

主要方法:

  • 参与者 (N=147) 预测了从2色网格中随机选择的正方形的颜色.
  • 结果的可取性被操纵,某些颜色比其他颜色更可取.
  • 通过改变所需颜色方块的比例来改变证据的强度;采用漂移扩散建模.

主要成果:

  • 无论是可取性操纵还是它们的相互作用都显著影响了预测.
  • 漂移-扩散模型分析揭示了判断层面的偏见:预测所需结果所需的证据较少.
  • 可取性影响了证据的积累,参与者更容易地解释证据支持所需结果 (自上而下的影响).

结论:

  • 理想性偏差影响证据判断的门和证据积累的过程.
  • 这表明欲望对预测相关信息的处理方式具有自上而下的影响.
  • 漂移扩散建模是剖析有动机的认知偏见机制的一个有价值的工具.