在印度布拉赫马普特拉河的贾巴拉利亚流域水文干旱的多变量分析
Bivek Chakma1,2, Deepak Jhajharia3, Ghanashyam Singh Yurembam3
1College of Agricultural and Engineering and Post Harvest Technology, Central Agricultural University (Imphal), Ranipool, India. bbivekchakma@gmail.com.
Scientific reports
|December 4, 2025
概括
这项研究使用copula方法分析了贾巴拉利河的水文干旱. 调查结果显示,干旱持续时间较长,严重程度随时间尺度的增加而增加,这凸显了干旱风险规划中联合概率的必要性.
科学领域:
- 水文和水资源管理 水文和水资源管理
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 适应气候变化 适应气候变化
背景情况:
- 水文干旱对水资源和生态系统构成重大风险.
- 了解干旱特征的共同概率对于有效的风险评估至关重要.
- 贾巴拉利 (卡门格) 河流盆地是布拉姆普特拉河的支流,面临着潜在的干旱影响.
研究的目的:
- 在贾巴拉利河流域进行基于的多变量水文干旱分析.
- 为了估计干旱的严重程度,持续时间和到达之间的时间以及它们的联合概率.
- 评估不同时间尺度对干旱特征和回归周期的影响.
主要方法:
- 使用每月排放数据 (2000-2023) 计算多次流量干旱指数 (3,6,9,12个月).
- 应用各种边际概率分布函数 (PDF) 和偶数家族 (圆,阿基米德) 用于联合和条件概率分析.
- 相关性分析以确定最适合的干旱变量对,用于共同的概率评估.
主要成果:
- 在较长的时间尺度 (SDIn12和SDIn9个月) 中观察到水文干旱严重程度最高.
- 记录-正常PDF最适合的严重程度和持续时间边际分布;正常 (Gumbel) 配方有效捕获依赖.
- 多变量联合回归期分析表明,条件事件的增加具有较长的时间尺度,这意味着极端的联合干旱风险.
结论:
- 共同的概率评估对于全面的干旱风险规划至关重要.
- 较长的时间尺度放大了干旱的严重程度和持续时间,增加了极端事件的可能性.
- 该研究为该地区的水资源管理和干旱减缓战略提供了宝贵的见解.
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