在欧盟的人口变化下预测劳动力市场失衡和技能不匹配
Guillaume Marois1,2, Michaela Potančoková3, Agnieszka Bezat4
1International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, VID/OeAW, University of Vienna), Laxenburg, Austria. marois@iiasa.ac.at.
European journal of population = Revue europeenne de demographie
|December 4, 2025
概括
预计到2060年,欧盟面临着长期的劳动力不匹配问题. 高技能工人供应的增加将与低技能工作的空缺职位并存,这表明结构失衡,而不是短缺.
科学领域:
- 社会经济研究是社会经济研究.
- 劳动力经济学 劳动力经济学
- 工作分析的未来工作分析.
背景情况:
- 欧盟 (EU27) 面临着不断变化的劳动力市场动态.
- 预测长期劳动力供需对于经济规划至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估欧盟27个国家的长期劳动力不匹配情况,直到2060年.
- 分析各种政策干预对这些不匹配的影响.
主要方法:
- 在个人层面上进行动态微模拟建模 (Link4Skills-Mic).
- 对人口,教育和劳动力动力学的联合建模.
- 整合国家特定的劳动力供应和职业需求预测.
主要成果:
- 预计高技能工人不足和中低技能职业的空缺职位的共存.
- 识别结构性不匹配,这是由于资格,工作特征和招聘不一致而导致的.
- 政策情景显示部分缓解;没有单一的干预可以解决所有问题.
结论:
- 解决未来的劳动力不匹配问题需要协调,全面的战略.
- 政策必须整合人口趋势与不断变化的就业需求在一个老龄化,数字化经济.
- 自动化和人力资本战略对技能不匹配有复杂而多样化的影响.
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