贝叶斯对现有的难民和寻求庇护者人口的投影
Herbert P Susmann1, Adrian E Raftery2
1Division of Biostatistics, Department of Population Health, NYU Grossman School of Medicine, New York University, New York, NY, USA.
Demography
|December 5, 2025
概括
预测难民和寻求庇护者人口是一个挑战. 这项研究引入了贝叶斯时间序列模型来预测未来的强迫迁移数字,显示了对1年,5年和10年的预测的良好准确性.
科学领域:
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 强迫移民研究 强迫移民研究
- 统计建模 统计建模
背景情况:
- 在人口学中,估计未来的移民模式至关重要.
- 强迫移民,包括难民和寻求庇护者,对全球移民产生重大影响,但难以预测.
- 对于政策和资源分配,需要准确的预测.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证一个新的建模管道,用于预测难民和寻求庇护者人口.
- 为原籍国提供大量流离失所人口的可靠预测.
- 提高对强迫移民动态的理解.
主要方法:
- 利用贝叶斯的等级时间序列建模.
- 应用了中断后勤流程模型来模拟人口增长和下降阶段.
- 纳入了联合国难民事务高级专员办事处 (UNHCR) 的数据.
主要成果:
- 拟议的建模管道在验证练习中表现良好.
- 在1年,5年和10年的时间里实现了准确的预测.
- 为35个原产国生成预测.
结论:
- 贝叶斯的时间序列方法为预测强迫移民提供了一个强大的方法.
- 该模型成功地捕捉到了难民和寻求庇护者人口变化的复杂动态.
- 调查结果为人道主义组织和政策制定者提供了有价值的数据.
相关概念视频
Design Example: Analyzing Capacity Contours for Flood Risk Assessment
270
Flood risk assessment involves careful planning and analysis to ensure the safety of communities near water retention structures. Capacity contours are a vital tool in this process, as they illustrate the potential spread of water at specific levels in a given area. In the context of building a bund across a small valley, these contours play a critical role in evaluating the safety of nearby residential areas.In this example, the bund is intended to store stormwater in the valley. The engineers...
270
Distributions to Estimate Population Parameter
5.0K
The accurate values of population parameters such as population proportion, population mean, and population standard deviation (or variance) are usually unknown. These are fixed values that can only be estimated from the data collected from the samples. The estimates of each of these parameters are sample proportion, the sample mean, and sample standard deviation (or variance). To obtain the values of these sample statistics, data are required that have particular distribution and central...
5.0K
Newman Projections
20.2K
Different notations are used to represent the three-dimensional structure of molecules on two-dimensional surfaces. One of the most commonly used representations is the dash-wedge formula. The dashed wedges, solid wedges, and the plane lines indicate the groups situated behind the plane, coming out of the plane, and in the plane, respectively.
The organic molecules rotate across the single bonds leading to numerous temporary three-dimensional structures of varying energy known as...
The organic molecules rotate across the single bonds leading to numerous temporary three-dimensional structures of varying energy known as...
20.2K
Probability Histograms
13.1K
A probability histogram is a visual representation of a probability distribution. Similar a typical histogram, the probability histogram consists of contiguous (adjoining) boxes. It has both a horizontal axis and a vertical axis. The horizontal axis is labeled with what the data represents. The vertical axis is labeled with probability. Each rectangular bar in the histogram is 1 unit wide, which suggests that the area under each bar equals the probability, P(x), where x is 1, 2, 3, and so on.
13.1K
Sample Proportion and Population Proportion
6.3K
Collecting samples or responses from an entire population takes significant time and effort, so a researcher collects responses from only a sample of that population. Suppose a study needs to collect information about a specific mobile application. After sample collection, the researcher analyzes the data and discovers that most individuals in the sample use that specific mobile application. The sample proportion measures the number of individuals in a sample who either use or don't use the...
6.3K
Fischer Projections
16.1K
Learning to draw Fischer projections of molecules and understanding their relevance plays a crucial role in the visual depiction of organic molecules. A Fischer projection is a two-dimensional projection on a planar surface to simplify the three-dimensional wedge–dash representation of molecules. This is especially helpful in the case of molecules with multiple chiral centers that can be difficult to draw. Here, all the bonds of interest are represented as horizontal or vertical lines. While...
16.1K


