在中等收入国家开发和验证新生儿死亡的流行病学风险评分
Kelsy N Areco1, Paulo Bandiera-Paiva1, Rita C X Balda1
1Escola Paulista de Medicina, Universidade Federal de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.
Frontiers in public health
|December 5, 2025
概括
一个新的风险评分识别了新生儿新生儿死亡高风险使用个人和市政数据在巴西. 该工具有助于优先考虑护理和分配资源,以减少婴儿死亡率差异.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 新生儿医学 新生儿医学
背景情况:
- 新生儿死亡率显示出显著的区域差异,尽管全球减少.
- 在出生时识别高风险新生儿对于有针对性的干预和改善健康规划至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发新生儿死亡的流行病学风险评分.
- 评分是基于风险分层的个人和上下文因素.
主要方法:
- 一项队列研究分析了巴西圣保罗州 (2009-2018) 超过560万活产婴儿.
- 多级逻辑回归计算了风险权重从调整后的赔率比率.
- 进行了风险评分的内部和外部验证.
主要成果:
- 风险得分包括先天性异常,早产,低出生体重和不充分的产前检查等因素.
- 孕产妇的年龄,性别,出生季节,多胎产,以及城市卫生服务的密度也会导致风险.
- ROC曲线下的面积 (AUC) 为0.83 (内部) 和0.81 (外部),表明了良好的预测性能.
结论:
- 开发的得分有效地结合了个人和市政数据,以对巴西新生儿死亡风险进行分类.
- 这种工具可以支持临床优先级,资源分配和识别有风险的新生儿.
- 该得分补充了临床评估,以更好地管理新生儿护理.
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