开发一个基于LASSO回归的诺图,以预测腹腔大动脉动脉瘤患者在内血管动脉瘤修复后的结果
Fengyi Yu1,2,3,4, Dexin Shen5, Yan Lv1,2,3,4
1Department of Cardiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, Henan, 450052, People's Republic of China.
Clinical interventions in aging
|December 5, 2025
概括
一个新的预后模型预测了为腹腔大动脉动脉瘤 (AAA) 进行内血管动脉瘤修复 (EVAR) 的患者的结果. 该模型确定了六个风险因素,以帮助临床医生进行风险分层和治疗规划.
科学领域:
- 血管外科 血管外科
- 医学预测 医学预测
- 医疗信息学 医疗信息学
背景情况:
- 腹腔大动脉瘤 (AAA) 具有重大风险,需要有效的管理策略.
- 内血管动脉瘤修复 (EVAR) 是一种常见的治疗方法,但预测患者的结果仍然至关重要.
- 需要准确的预后模型来指导临床决策和个性化患者护理.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证一种预后模型,用于预测接受AAAEAR的患者的预后结果.
- 为了确定与EVAR后死亡率相关的关键风险因素.
- 为预测1年和3年全因死亡率 (ACM) 创建一个名谱.
主要方法:
- 分析了304名接受AAA EVAR治疗的患者队列.
- 参与者被分为培训 (70%) 和验证 (30%) 组.
- 拉索回归和考克斯回归分析确定了六个重要的风险因素:中风史,CIA动脉样硬化,年龄,血红蛋白,单细胞计数和AAA大小.
主要成果:
- 开发的预后模型表现出良好的预测性能.
- 一年ACM的曲线下的面积 (AUC) 值为0.84 (培训) 和0.71 (验证).
- 三年ACM的AUC值为0.81 (培训) 和0.80 (验证).
结论:
- 预后模型有效预测EVAR后患者的全因死亡率.
- 该模型有助于临床医生对患有腹腔大动脉动脉瘤的患者进行风险分层.
- 这种工具可以帮助量身定制治疗策略,以改善EVAR后的患者管理.
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