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潮间息地是否能跟上营养出口的步伐? 从建模气候和管理场景中获得的见解

F Afonso¹, Z Teixeira², M C Austen³

¹MARE - Marine and Environmental Sciences Centre, ARNET - Aquatic Research Network, Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade de Lisboa, Campo Grande, 1749-016, Lisboa, Portugal.

The Science of the total environment

|December 5, 2025

概括

河口潮间息地,如盐沼,保留了超过80%的营养,缓冲农业排水. 然而,更新的管理策略对于应对气候和土地利用对这些重要生态系统的影响至关重要.

科学领域:

河口生态学和保护科学
环境建模和环境管理
沿海息地评估沿海息地评估

背景情况:

河口系统面临着息地丧失和环保化的严重威胁,特别是在城市化和农业地区.
潮间息地对于营养循环至关重要,但它们缓冲邻近土地使用的高营养负载的能力尚未得到充分研究.
生物多样性的减少和生态系统服务的丧失是这些不断升级的压力因素的后果.

研究的目的:

评估潮间缓冲息地对周围土地使用的高营养出口的营养保留能力.
用InVEST模型评估不同管理策略和气候变化场景对营养出口和息地质量的影响.
为河口地区的保护政策和可持续农业实践提供指导.

主要方法:

使用了两个InVEST模型:营养物质交付比率 (NDR) 和息地质量 (HQ).
模拟了各种管理策略 (例如,正常运作,生态保护,经济发展) 和气候变化场景.
从农业和牧场出口的量化营养物质以及潮间息地内的保留率,重点关注盐沼和海草.

主要成果:

农业和牧场被确定为主要营养来源;潮间息地,特别是盐沼,显示出高营养保留率 (>80%).
营养素出口受到管理场景的重大影响,而气候变化场景显示影响最小.
在经济发展情景下,息地质量下降 (例如,丝状藻类的损失),尽管盐沼保持了高质量,但与海草不同.

结论:

潮间息地目前正在跟上营养出口的步伐,但它们的长期弹性受到气候和土地利用变化的威胁.
管理策略显著影响营养素出口,需要超越当前实践的适应性方法.
建模洞察力对于向决策者提供有关息地保护和河口生态系统中的可持续土地管理的信息至关重要.

关键词:

生态系统服务生态系统服务土地使用地图.情景分析就是一种情景分析.过渡性生态系统过渡性生态系统

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