评估选择弹性奶牛的未来经济和环境影响,使用综合机械和遗传建模
R Shi1, A van der Linden2, B Ducro3
1Animal Breeding and Genomics Group, Wageningen University & Research, P.O. Box 338, 6700 AH Wageningen, the Netherlands; Animal Production Systems Group, Wageningen University & Research, P.O. Box 338, 6700 AH Wageningen, the Netherlands.
Animal : an international journal of animal bioscience
|December 5, 2025
概括
养殖乳牛以提高弹性,有助于适应气候变化. 弹性奶牛提供更好的终身利和更低的环境影响,证明对未来的奶牛养殖有益.
科学领域:
- 动物科学动物科学
- 农业经济学 农业经济学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 乳制品行业面临着适应气候变化的挑战.
- 使用历史数据,很难预测在未来环境中选择的奶牛的表现.
研究的目的:
- 在未来的气候条件下 (2055年) 模拟奶牛的表型表现.
- 评估为生产而养的经济和环境影响与弹性.
主要方法:
- 针对2万头奶牛的综合机械和育种模拟模型.
- 模拟了环境温度的增加 (0.7°C每十年).
- 评估的特征:牛奶产量,料摄入量,受孕,弹性和效率,使用生物经济和生命周期评估模型.
主要成果:
- 聚焦于性的育种导致了较低的牛奶产量和料摄入量,但更早的受孕和更大的性.
- 为弹性选择的奶牛显示出较低的牛奶损失和变异,但乳房效率也较低.
- 经济分析表明,尽管每头牛的年利较低,但弹性奶牛的终身利能力更高.
结论:
- 乳牛的复原性育种提高了气候变化下的终身利能力和环境可持续性.
- 与生产专注的奶牛相比,弹性奶牛每年排放的温室气体较少.
- 研究提供了支持乳牛育种计划中适应性选择的证据.
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