了解危机期间医生移民的意图-行动差距:来自土耳其的中断时间序列证据
Jebağı Canberk Aydın1, Emre Atilgan1, Aysu Zekioğlu1
1Department of Health Management, Faculty of Health Sciences, Trakya University, Edirne, Turkey.
Health policy (Amsterdam, Netherlands)
|December 5, 2025
概括
土耳其医生移民意图在危机期间激增,但实际移民面临限制,扩大了意图与行动的差距. 这凸显了在来源国家需要更好的留守策略,在目的地国家需要更好的道德招聘.
科学领域:
- 卫生政策研究 卫生政策研究
- 移民研究是关于移民的研究.
- 卫生经济学 卫生经济学
背景情况:
- 全球卫生工作人员的迁移对卫生系统产生了重大影响.
- 土耳其面临着不断升级的医生移民,在危机期间对意图-行动动态的理解有限.
- 经济,政治和卫生系统危机加剧了移民挑战.
研究的目的:
- 分析医生移民意图与从土耳其到经合组织国家实现的移民 (2012-2022) 之间的差距.
- 评估2017-2018年结构危机对医生移民模式的影响.
- 了解危机和移民意图-行动分歧之间的关系.
主要方法:
- 使用了关于良好状态证书申请 (意图) 和经合组织卫生工作人员迁移数据 (实现的流动) 的数据.
- 员工中断时间序列设计和结构性断裂分析以确定与危机相关的轮班.
- 在研究期间,意图与行动比率的量化变化.
主要成果:
- 医生意图与行动比率从2012年的0.77:1增加到2022年的4.16:1,表明迁移摩擦日益增加.
- 在2017-2018危机时期,移民动态出现了显著的结构性破坏.
- 证书申请从59个增加到2685个,而经合组织的流入量从77个增加到645个,表明移民障碍加剧.
结论:
- 危机扩大了医生移民意图,但同时也限制了其实现,扩大了意图与行动之间的差距.
- 这种现象需要对摩擦敏感的移民预测和来源国家的强有力的保留策略.
- 伦理平衡的招聘政策对于目的地国家来说至关重要,以减轻大脑流失的影响.
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