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在南极冰盖未来演变方面,从短期的不确定性到长期的确定性
Violaine Coulon1, Ann Kristin Klose2,3, Tamsin Edwards4
1Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB), Laboratoire de Glaciologie, Brussels, Belgium. violaine.coulon@ulb.be.
Nature communications
|December 5, 2025
概括
由于南极洲,未来海平面上升的预测是不确定的. 即使减少排放量,南极冰的损失也可能继续,这凸显了立即采取排放决定的必要性.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 冰川学的冰川学
- 海平面上升研究研究
背景情况:
- 准确的海平面上升预测对于沿海适应至关重要.
- 南极冰盖动态的不确定性阻碍了未来气候预测的可靠性.
- 南极冰盖是全球海平面变化的最大潜在贡献者.
研究的目的:
- 量化南极冰盖对海平面上升的贡献,直到2300年以后.
- 评估不同排放场景 (SSP1-2.6和SSP5-8.5) 对南极冰的损失的影响.
- 在冰盖建模中探索参数和气候不确定性.
主要方法:
- 结合了两种冰盖模型进行南极冰盖预测.
- 系统地采样参数和气候不确定性.
- 对历史观测数据进行校准模型.
主要成果:
- 预计到2300年南极海平面贡献范围从-0.09m到+1.74m (低排放) 和+0.73m到+5.95m (非常高排放).
- 非常高的排放量 (SSP5-8.5) 引发了大规模的南极冰盖撤退.
- 在2100年之前净零排放显著减少,但不会消除多个世纪的冰损失,特别是来自西南极洲的冰.
结论:
- 目前的缓解努力可能不足以防止自给自足的南极冰损失.
- 在不久的将来做出的排放决定对于确定长期海平面上升至关重要.
- 即使在强有力的缓解下,西南极洲也可能对未来的海平面上升做出重大贡献.
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