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Updated: Jan 9, 2026

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An R-Based Landscape Validation of a Competing Risk Model
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节的欧元期货风险模型是否对所有人口来说都是一个好的预测指标? 一个外部验证研究
Filipe Leite1,2,3, Ana Margarida Silva4, Gonçalo Paupério4
1University of Beira Interior - Health Sciences Faculty, 6200-506, Covilhã, Portugal. filipe.miguel.leite@outlook.com.
Journal of cardiothoracic surgery
|December 5, 2025
概括
朴素的欧隆1得分对葡萄牙肺癌患者的发病率进行了适度预测,但欧隆2得分未被验证用于该队列的死亡率预测,这表明需要特定人群的模型.
科学领域:
- 胸部手术研究结果研究结果
- 临床风险预测建模模型
- 医疗服务研究 医疗服务研究
背景情况:
- 现有众多模型用于预测胸部手术中的术后死亡率.
- 精的欧隆得分 (2019年) 使用ESTS数据预测外科手术期间的发病率 (欧隆1) 和死亡率 (欧隆2).
- 以前的验证仅限于欧洲人群,需要在不同的队列中进行外部验证.
研究的目的:
- 为了外部验证节的欧元期货风险模型.
- 为了评估葡萄牙人接受肺癌切除术的队列中的模型性能.
主要方法:
- 对410名接受切除 (2018-2021) 的非小细胞肺癌 (NSCLC) 患者的回顾性分析.
- 利用的欧隆1 (发病率) 和2 (死亡率) 模型进行预测.
- 评估模型校准,区分和临床有用性.
主要成果:
- 经济的欧隆1 (发病率) 模型显示适度适用性 (AUC 0.668),但有校准问题.
- 储蓄欧隆2 (死亡率) 模型没有得到验证 (AUC 0.437),表明严重低估.
- 肺切除术与最高的发病率有关.
结论:
- 节的欧罗朗1分数显示出适度的效用,用于预测发病率.
- 在这个葡萄牙队列中,节的Eurolung 2评分对于30天死亡率预测是不可靠的.
- 这些发现突显了对人口特异性风险模型和改善胸部外科手术数据收集的需求.
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