撒哈拉以南非洲地区五岁以下儿童死亡率的空间模式和决定因素:空间和多层次分析
Chaltu Diyesa1, Akalu Banbeta Tereda2, Abenezer Yohannes1
1Department of Statistics, College of Natural Sciences, Jimma University, Jimma, Ethiopia.
Archives of public health = Archives belges de sante publique
|December 6, 2025
概括
撒哈拉以南非洲地区的五岁以下儿童死亡率显示出显著的空间聚类,超过了可持续发展目标的目标. 关键因素包括母亲教育,家庭规模和获得医疗保健服务以减少儿童死亡.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 空间流行病学 空间流行病学
背景情况:
- 撒哈拉以南非洲地区面临着世界上五岁以下儿童死亡率最高的地区,占全球死亡人数的80%以上.
- 关于该地区五岁以下儿童死亡率的空间分布和多层次决定因素的研究有限.
研究的目的:
- 研究撒哈拉以南非洲地区五岁以下儿童死亡率的空间模式.
- 确定影响该地区五岁以下儿童死亡率的重大多层次决定因素.
主要方法:
- 利用来自9个撒哈拉以南非洲国家 (2016-2022) 的人口和健康调查 (DHS) 数据.
- 采用多层物流回归模型,分析了115,335名活产婴儿.
- 使用概率比测试,AIC和BIC标准进行对比的嵌套模型.
主要成果:
- 五岁以下的死亡率显示出显著的空间聚类 (莫兰指数 = 0.552,p < 0.001).
- 布隆迪的死亡率高 (58.5/1000),肯尼亚的死亡率低 (33.9/1000),整体区域死亡率为48.9/1000.
- 增加的风险因素包括母亲的教育程度低,家庭规模大,多胎;保护因素包括母亲的就业,避孕药的使用和卫生机构的分娩.
结论:
- 撒哈拉以南非洲地区的五岁以下儿童死亡率超过了可持续发展目标的目标,这凸显了迫切需要进行干预的需要.
- 母亲教育,计划生育和安全分娩实践对于降低儿童死亡率至关重要.
- 赋予妇女权力和促进区域合作对于改善儿童存活率至关重要.
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