CMIP6模型无法捕捉热带太平洋海面温度梯度的长期强制变化
Hannah Byrne1,2, Richard Seager3, Jason E Smerdon3,4
1Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA. hb2731@columbia.edu.
Nature communications
|December 6, 2025
概括
气候模型很难复制150年来热带太平洋海面温度梯度的观察到的强化. 许多模型显示了减弱的趋势,表明模拟太平洋动态的潜在问题.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
- 大气科学 大气科学
背景情况:
- 热带太平洋海面温度 (SST) 梯度在过去150年中得到加强.
- 结合模型相互比较项目第6阶段 (CMIP6) 模型经常模拟这种梯度的减弱.
- 这种差异引发了关于模型准确性和观察到的SST趋势的性质的争论.
研究的目的:
- 综合评估观测和建模的热带太平洋SST梯度的长期趋势.
- 评估CMIP6模型捕捉观察到的梯度动态的能力.
- 调查观察到的强化是否是一种强迫反应以及模型如何表示它.
主要方法:
- 从1870年到2024年对梯度趋势 (≥20年) 的分析.
- 利用了五个观测数据集和14个CMIP6大集合.
- 将模型模拟的趋势与观察数据进行比较.
主要成果:
- CMIP6模型在很大程度上无法与观察到的长期热带太平洋SST梯度趋势相匹配,特别是最近的趋势.
- 与观察到的趋势相匹配的模型通常依赖于过度的内部可变性来掩盖削弱的强制反应.
- 观察到的梯度趋势随着时间的推移呈现出加速增强的速度,这是大多数模型中缺少的强制反应.
结论:
- 在观察到的和CMIP6模拟的热带太平洋SST梯度趋势之间存在显著的差异.
- 当前的气候模型可能无法准确地反映驱动观察到的强化梯度的动态.
- 观察到的梯度的加速增强表明,大多数模拟都没有捕捉到强有力的强迫反应.
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