核心密度带宽规范在邻里暴力预防研究研究中的密度
Hiwot Y Zewdie1, Nicole Asa2,3, Ali Rowhani-Rahbar2,3
1Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA. hzewdie@uw.edu.
概括
在核心密度估计 (KDE) 中以数据驱动的带宽选择用于基于地点的暴力预防可能会扭曲结果. 研究人员必须仔细选择KDE参数,以准确检测干预对犯罪的影响.
科学领域:
- 犯罪学 犯罪学
- 地理空间分析是什么
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 基于地点的干预措施被用来减少暴力.
- 内核密度估计 (KDE) 是一种分析地理空间点数据的方法,例如犯罪事件.
- KDE的有效性受到带宽参数的影响,该参数决定了数据的平滑程度.
研究的目的:
- 在KDE中使用数据驱动方法量化所选带宽的变化.
- 检查不同带宽大小如何影响模拟基于地点的干预对暴力影响的估计.
主要方法:
- 利用费城 (2013-2023) 的暴力犯罪数据.
- 使用两个默认数据驱动的标准计算带宽大小,用于犯罪年组合.
- 模拟了具有已知的效果的假设干预,并使用波桑回归分析了其在各种带宽上的可检测性.
主要成果:
- 带宽大小根据数据驱动的方法,犯罪类型和年份有很大的不同,从45.9英尺到48.450英尺不等.
- 模拟的干预效应只能在200到2900英尺的带宽内检测到.
- 更大的带宽导致了不准确的结论,表明干预是无效的,甚至增加犯罪.
结论:
- 在KDE中数据驱动的带宽选择可以掩盖或扭曲基于位置的干预的真实影响.
- 研究人员必须批判性和透明地选择KDE参数,以便进行准确的暴力预防研究.
- 适当的带宽选择对于可靠地评估基于地点的暴力减少策略的影响至关重要.
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