在元分析中超出预测间隔:报告具有临床相关益处或危害的可比研究的预期比例
W Siemens1, M Borenstein2, T Evrenoglou3
1Institute for Evidence in Medicine, Medical Center - University of Freiburg / Medical Faculty - University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany. waldemar.siemens@uniklinik-freiburg.de.
BMC medical research methodology
|December 7, 2025
概括
报告预测间隔 (PI) 和有益或有害影响的研究预期比例对于具有不同效果大小的元分析至关重要. 这有助于决策者了解干预的有用性.
科学领域:
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
- 临床流行病学 临床流行病学
- 医学研究综合 医学研究综合
背景情况:
- 具有实质性的效果大小变化的元分析需要报告异质性.
- 预测间隔 (PI) 估计了可比研究中的真实效应范围.
- 了解一项干预措施是否始终有益或有害至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 建议报告预期的比较性研究的比例,其影响在定义的范围内.
- 为了提高对超分析结果的解释,超越传统的预测间隔.
- 提供关于在科学文章中展示这些指标的指导.
主要方法:
- 计算预测区间 (PI) 的上限和下限.
- 估计具有影响超过预定义的益处或危害值的可比研究的比例.
- 将方法应用于具有二分和连续结果的元分析.
主要成果:
- 已被证明适用于Cochrane审查的剖腹产和生活质量.
- 可视化了真实研究效应的分布,显示了有益或有害结果的比例.
- 提供了绘制和报告这些分布的方法.
结论:
- 预期的研究比例与PI一起进行补充报告可以帮助临床决策.
- 这些指标有助于评估干预措施的潜在效用和风险.
- 由于有限数据的异质性估计可能不准确,建议谨慎使用.
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