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偏头痛疾病负担和趋势 (1990-2021):对中国和其他G20国家进行多维比较分析

Rong Yang^1,2,3, Wen Chen^1,4, Mou Sun^1,2,3

¹Beijing Anzhen Nanchong Hospital of Capital Medical University & Nanchong Central Hospital, Nanchong, Sichuan, China.

Brain and behavior

|December 8, 2025

概括

在全球范围内,偏头痛的负担正在增加,不成比例地影响女性. 预测表明,在没有有针对性的干预措施的情况下,在下一个世纪中,性别差距和负担加剧.

科学领域:

神经学神经学
公共卫生公共卫生
流行病学流行病学

背景情况:

偏头痛是一种广泛的神经系统疾病,具有重大的全球健康和经济影响.
全球疾病负担研究 (GBD) 2021提供了分析偏头痛患病率和趋势的关键数据.
了解偏头痛负担对于制定有效的医疗保健策略至关重要.

研究的目的:

分析偏头痛负担的现状,历史趋势 (1990-2021年) 和未来预测.
调查G20国家的偏头痛负担,重点关注中国.
为明智的卫生政策和干预提供科学证据.

主要方法:

利用GBD 2021数据计算偏头痛发病率,流行率,DALYs和YLDs从1990-2021年.
根据人口统计 (年龄,性别,SDI) 和地理区域的统计分析.
应用预测模型 (ES,ARIMA,BAPC) 来预测未来的趋势和确定负担驱动因素.

主要成果:

偏头痛的负担显示出明显的年龄依赖,具有双模模式和明显的性别差异,女性患上偏头痛的患病率大约是女性的两倍.
在1990年至2021年期间,总的偏头痛负担增加,同时性别差距越来越大.
未来的预测 (2030-2050年) 表明性别不平衡不断升级,而如果没有干预措施,偏头痛负担将持续一个世纪.

结论:

偏头痛的负担在不同地区和人口统计学中表现出显著的年龄和性别差异.
偏头痛负担日益增加,凸显了迫切需要有针对性的公共卫生干预措施.
干预措施应优先考虑受影响不成比例的地区和人口,以减轻差异.

关键词:

贝叶斯年龄周期队列 (BAPC)在GBDGBDGBDGBDGBDGBD 自动回归集成移动平均线 (ARIMA)根据残疾调整的寿命年 (DALYs)疾病负担疾病负担指数级光滑 (ES) 是指数级光滑的方法.偏头痛偏头痛偏头痛偏头痛社会人口统计指数 (SDI)与残疾生活多年的时间 (YLDs)

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