中国心力衰竭:对干预策略的宏观经济建模研究
Hua Wang1, Huiyi Zhou2, Ke Chai1
1Department of Cardiology, Beijing Hospital, National Center of Gerontology, Institute of Geriatric Medicine, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, No. 1 Da Hua Road, Dong Dan, Beijing 100730, China.
European heart journal
|December 8, 2025
概括
到2035年,心力衰竭 (HF) 将使中国损失超过1万亿美元,主要是由于生产力下降. 像BNP查这样的具有成本效益的干预措施可以显著降低这种经济负担.
科学领域:
- 心血管疾病流行病学
- 卫生经济学 卫生经济学
- 公共卫生政策 公共卫生政策
背景情况:
- 心力衰竭 (HF) 在低收入和中等收入国家 (LMICs) 中是一个显著且日益增长的经济挑战.
- 中国人口老龄化和心血管疾病 (CVD) 风险因素的增加加剧了HF的经济影响.
- 在LMICs中HF的长期宏观经济影响仍然在很大程度上未得到量化.
研究的目的:
- 从2025年到2035年,预测心力衰竭 (HF) 在中国的宏观经济负担.
- 评估三个干预措施的成本效益,以减轻高频的经济影响.
- 为中国和其他LMICs管理HF的政策决策提供信息.
主要方法:
- 利用了健康增强的宏观经济模型,结合了全球疾病研究负担,国家注册表和保险数据库的数据.
- 预计HF患病率和经济负担 (2025-2035年),报告成本以2017年国际美元 (INT$) 表示.
- 评估了三个干预措施:B型性尿素 (BNP) 查,密集血压 (BP) 控制和指南导向医疗疗 (GDMT) 优化.
主要成果:
- 预计到2035年,中国的高风病例预计将达到2270万例,累计经济负担为1001.1亿印第安元 (占GDP的0.26%).
- 劳动力消耗占经济负担的大部分 (72.1%).
- 干预措施显示了显著的成本节约:BNP查 (INT$785亿),密集的BP控制 (INT$2750亿),和GDMT优化 (INT$170亿).
结论:
- 心力衰竭给中国带来了巨大的和日益增长的宏观经济负担,原因是劳动力生产率下降.
- 可扩展的,具有成本效益的策略,包括基于初级保健的BNP查,补贴的高血压控制和加强的GDMT遵守,对于经济缓解至关重要.
- 调查结果为中国和其他面临类似人口变化和日益升级的心血管疾病负担的LMICs的政策优先事项提供了关键的见解.
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