使用适应生长季节的AquaCrop使用欧洲玉米产量的未来预测
Louise Busschaert1, Vincent Deketelaere1, Wim Thiery2
1Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, KU Leuven, Heverlee, Belgium.
European journal of agronomy : the journal of the European Society for Agronomy
|December 8, 2025
概括
未来的欧洲玉米产量可能会因气候变化而发生变化,但改善的生育能力和灌方式可以带来显著的收益. 优化这些做法是确保在气候变化中的作物产量的关键.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 气候影响评估 气候影响评估
- 作物建模作物建模
背景情况:
- 在全球范围内,玉米生产至关重要,但气候变化和农业做法对欧洲产量的未来影响尚未完全理解.
- 现有的气候影响评估通常使用固定作物生长周期,这可能不准确地反映适应不断变化的条件的适应.
研究的目的:
- 估计气候条件和农民实践 (生育管理,灌) 对欧洲未来玉米作物产量的影响.
- 分析基线和近期期的各种气候场景下的产量变化,产量差距,生长周期和水生产率的变化.
主要方法:
- 在空间分布式的设置中使用了AquaCrop模型 (v7.2),基于来自跨部门影响模型相互比较项目的气象数据 (模拟第3轮).
- 开发了一种通用玉米作物模拟,其播种日期和生长阶段取决于温度,以允许适应,与之前的评估形成鲜明对比.
主要成果:
- 预计更温暖的气候将提前播种日期,缩短生长季节,导致雨水玉米的产量相对稳定,产量差距较大.
- 通过减轻生育压力 (平均1.5/公,主要在北方) 和优化南部地区的灌 (增加2/公) 可能实现显著的产量增加.
- 有利可图的雨水玉米种植区预计将向北转移并扩大,而南部的灌玉米显示出稳定的产量和提高的水生产率.
结论:
- 仅仅气候变化对欧洲近期玉米产量的影响很小,但农民的做法对于提高产量至关重要.
- 减轻生育限制和优化灌提供了大量机会,以提高欧洲的玉米产量和水生产率.
- 种植区的战略转变和优化管理对于确保玉米作物产量以应对气候变化至关重要.
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