受感染的宿主能力在塑造实验性动物疫病时掩盖了易受性的异质性
Anna A Pérez-Umphrey1, Kate E Langwig1, James S Adelman2
1Department of Biological Sciences, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, 24061, USA.
bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology
|December 8, 2025
概括
流行病模型预测较小的疫情与更大的宿主易感度变化. 这项研究发现,群体级流行病揭示了个体实验中未见的异质性,但由于鸟类传染性的变化,检测先前暴露效应具有挑战性.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 疾病生态学 疾病生态学
背景情况:
- 理论模型表明,宿主易感性的异质性增加会减少流行病的大小.
- 在自然系统中对这些预测的实验验证是有限的.
- 鉴于疾病出现的增加,了解影响流行病动态的因素至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 实验测试群体级别异质性敏感性如何影响流行病的严重程度.
- 为了比较无病原体的流行动态与以前暴露的家种群.
- 研究个体感染性变异对疾病传播的作用.
主要方法:
- 实验性流行病在复制的家鸟 (Haemagogus ssp) 的鸟类中宇宙群中被确立.
- 通过使用既未接触过病原体的鸟类或以前接触过的鸟类来操纵群体级别敏感性的异质性.
- 随机区间模型和经验数据被用于跟踪流行病并估计两个月的异质性.
主要成果:
- 曾经接触过病原体的群体表现出更高的异质感受度,而不是未接触过病原体的群体.
- 无病原体群体表现出异质性,这表明传播动态有助于超越个体敏感性的变化.
- 之前的暴露并没有显著改变群体水平的流行,可能被指数鸟类传染性变化所掩盖.
结论:
- 群体层面的疾病动态揭示了在个人层面的实验中没有明显的异质性来源.
- 东道主能力的意外变化可以显著影响流行病的结果,并掩盖其他因素.
- 在自然环境中测量传播动态需要考虑宿主特征的变化.
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