重建流行性呼吸道病毒在美国早期的空间传播
Renquan Zhang1, Rui Deng1, Sitong Liu1
1School of Mathematical Sciences, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian, China.
medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences
|December 8, 2025
概括
2009年H1N1流感和SARS-CoV-2流行病在美国大都市地区迅速蔓延,有不同的途径,但共享中心. 早期的传播更多地依赖于航空旅行而不是通勤,突出了制方面的挑战.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 传染病的动态传染病的动态.
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 了解新兴呼吸道病毒的早期地理传播,如2009年H1N1流感大流行和SARS-CoV-2,对于疫情的准备至关重要.
- 以往使用移动性和基因组数据的分析已经提供了洞察力,但关于空间传播路线,传播速度和随机过程的作用的关键问题仍然没有得到美国的答案.
研究的目的:
- 为了比较2009年H1N1流感和美国SARS-CoV-2大流行的早期时空动态.
- 调查航空旅行,通勤和超级传播对流行病传播的影响.
- 评估随机过程在早期传播和制挑战中的作用.
主要方法:
- 集成的高分辨率疾病数据与数据效率的推断框架.
- 综合航空旅行,通勤流量数据和病原体超级传播潜力.
- 在两次大流行中,重建了美国大都会地区的空间分布.
主要成果:
- 2009年H1N1和SARS-CoV-2流行病呈现出不同的空间传播途径,但共享了共同的传播枢纽.
- 两种病毒在几周内在大多数大都市地区建立了本地流通.
- 早期的空间传播与空中旅行比通勤更紧密相关.
- 随机动态引入了显著的不确定性,使早期检测和控制复杂化.
结论:
- 流行性呼吸道病毒以快速和随机的方式传播,这对早期制提出了挑战.
- 废水监测和感染控制策略,特别是当扩展到主要枢纽之外时,可能有助于缓解最初的空间扩张.
- 这些发现强调了控制广泛传播的呼吸道病原体传播的早期阶段的困难.
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