在人为气候变化和土地利用变化的双重压力下,亚马逊森林面临严重的衰退
Selma Bultan1, Yiannis Moustakis1, Sebastian Bathiany2
1Department of Geography, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität, Munich 80333, Germany.
概括
土地利用变化导致亚马逊热带雨林降解的80%. 没有减轻的全球变暖和森林砍伐风险,到2100年将失去38%的森林面积,增加突如其来的过渡风险,超过2.3°的全球变暖.
科学领域:
- 气候科学是气候科学.
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 环境科学环境科学
背景情况:
- 亚马逊雨林对于全球气候调节和生物多样性至关重要.
- 雨林因气候变化和土地利用变化的退化威胁着生态系统的稳定性.
- 之前的研究还没有完全分离出单个驱动因素对森林衰退的影响.
研究的目的:
- 解开气候变化和土地利用变化对亚马逊热带雨林退化的贡献.
- 评估关键生态系统转型的风险,并识别弹性丧失的迹象.
- 在不同的气候和土地利用情景下预测未来的森林减少.
主要方法:
- 使用的地球系统模型数据.
- 应用了一个强大的检测和归因框架.
- 分析了当地和盆地范围内的森林减少,包括突然的变化和非线性.
主要成果:
- 土地使用变化占亚马逊森林历史 (1950-2014) 衰退的80%.
- 未来的预测表明,到2100年,20世纪中叶森林面积的潜在损失可能高达38%.
- 预计森林砍伐将导致未来25%的损失,而未经缓解的全球变暖贡献了13%.
- 森林突然减少的风险非线性增加超过2.3°C的全球变暖值.
结论:
- 亚马逊雨林面临着大规模关键生态系统转型的重大风险.
- 研究结果强调了森林健康,全球气候,水和碳循环,生物多样性和人类生计之间的相互联系.
- 与"巴黎协定"一致的紧急森林保护和气候缓解对于缓解这些风险至关重要.
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