巴西的野火烟雾和登革热负担:来自全国研究的证据
Rahini Mahendran1, Lei Zhang2, Rongbin Xu1
1Climate Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia.
Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)
|December 8, 2025
概括
野火细颗粒物 (PM2.5) 显著增加了巴西登革热住院的风险. 这凸显了将野火烟雾监测纳入疾病预防公共卫生战略的必要性.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 野火细颗粒物 (PM2.5) 是一个新兴的健康问题.
- 野火PM2.5对蚊子传播的疾病 (如登革热) 的影响尚不清楚.
- 巴西的登革热和频繁的野火负担很高,需要对它们的相互作用进行研究.
研究的目的:
- 调查短期暴露于野火特定的PM2.5和巴西各地登革热相关住院病人的关联.
- 量化因野火暴露PM2.5而导致登革热住院的可归因负担.
- 探索因社会人口统计因素,季节和森林覆盖而改变效应.
主要方法:
- 在全国范围内进行了两阶段时间序列分析,使用每日登革热住院情况和野火特定的PM2.5度 (2008-2019).
- 野火PM2.5估计来自化学运输模型和机器学习.
- 使用分布式滞后模型和随机效应元分析的准-波松回归被用于估计关联和聚合效应.
主要成果:
- 野火特异性PM2.5的5μg/m3增加与登革热住院病例的10.5%增加有关 (RR: 1.105).
- 对登革热的关联比登革热出血热 (DHF) 更强烈,并且在人口群体中一致,老年人患DHF风险更高.
- 据估计,巴西每年有28,994例登革热相关住院病例归因于野火PM2.5.
结论:
- 在巴西,野火特定的PM2.5暴露显著增加了登革热相关的住院风险.
- 公共卫生战略应纳入野火烟雾监测,以减轻登革热的负担.
- 针对高风险地区和人口,特别是在干旱季节,对于减少疾病影响至关重要.
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