基于共识的特征选择,以实现透明和强大的贷款违约预测.
Ghazi Abbas1, Zhou Ying2, Majid Ayoubi3,4
1School of Economics and Management, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian City, 116024, China.
Scientific reports
|December 8, 2025
概括
一种新的混合排名聚合特征选择 (HRA-FS) 方法通过结合多种技术来改善贷款违约预测. 这种方法提高了模型的准确性和可解释性,以提高金融稳定性和包容性.
科学领域:
- 金融风险管理 金融风险管理
- 机器学习应用 机器学习应用
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
背景情况:
- 准确的贷款违约预测对于金融稳定至关重要,但受到复杂的借款人数据的挑战.
- 现有的特征选择方法往往会产生冗余,不稳定和无法解释的模型.
研究的目的:
- 开发一种新的特征选择框架,即混合排名聚合特征选择 (HRA-FS),以解决贷款违约预测的局限性.
- 提高模型的准确性,稳定性和可解释性,以实现公平的信用评估.
主要方法:
- 拟议的HRA-FS框架将ReliefF,递归特征消除和ElasticNet通过Borda计数聚合集成.
- 整合了战略特征分类,以减轻领域主导地位,并确保均衡的风险驱动器代表性.
- 在使用XGBoost分类器对不平衡的现实数据集进行了HRA-FS评估.
主要成果:
- 在数据集中,HRA-FS的表现始终优于单一特征选择方法.
- 在小公司贷款违约预测方面实现了0.965的高ROC-AUC.
- 确定了简洁,非冗余和可解释的特征集,包括房屋价值和库存周转率.
结论:
- 基于共识的,对类别有意识的HRA-FS框架有效地解决了特征选择中的准确性,稳定性和可解释性三难题.
- HRA-FS为贷款人提供了公平信用评估的强有力的工具,促进了金融包容性.
- 这种方法有助于在金融领域开发更易解释和更可靠的预测模型.
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