辩护言论如何升级集团间冲突
Luuk L Snijder1, Jörg Gross2, Carsten K W De Dreu1,3,4
1Faculty of Behavioural and Social Sciences, University of Groningen, Groningen, the Netherlands.
iScience
|December 9, 2025
概括
冲突领导人经常对他们的真实意图撒谎,利用自卫的说法来集结支持. 这种欺骗性的言论,被人们和人工智能所相信,加剧了冲突,使领导者受益于社会的代价.
科学领域:
- 政治科学 政治科学是指政治学.
- 行为经济学是一种行为经济学.
- 计算社会科学 计算社会科学
背景情况:
- 在冲突情况下,真相往往会被妥协.
- 领导人的战略沟通在冲突升级中起着至关重要的作用.
研究的目的:
- 分析冲突中的领导人对意图的战略歪曲.
- 调查自卫言论在动员支持和升级冲突中的作用.
主要方法:
- 分析了来自现实世界冲突的261份宣言.
- 使用人类参与者的实验研究 (n=252,312).
- 使用大型语言模型进行测试 (2,162个重复样本).
主要成果:
- 攻击方的领导人经常用自卫的说法掩盖剥削目标.
- 真实和虚假的自卫言论都容易被人类和人工智能所相信.
- 自卫要求增加追随者支持和昂贵的贡献,即使对非威胁性团体.
结论:
- 领导人的欺骗性信号,特别是自卫言论,是冲突升级的关键驱动力.
- 这种策略通过增加冲突强度和社会成本,使领导者受益.
- 了解这种动态对于缓解浪费性集团间冲突至关重要.
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