未来气候极端高温事件和土地利用变化对陆地脊椎动物的影响
Reut Vardi1,2, Gopal Murali3,4, Gabriel Henrique de Oliveira Caetano5,6
1School of Zoology, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel.
Global change biology
|December 9, 2025
概括
未来的气候和土地使用变化威胁着全球生物多样性. 综合影响可能会使超过7,800种脊椎动物暴露在极端高温和息地丧失中,危及灭绝.
科学领域:
- 生态与保护生物学 生态与保护生物学
- 气候变化科学 气候变化科学
- 生物多样性研究 生物多样性研究
背景情况:
- 气候和土地利用变化是生物多样性丧失的主要驱动因素.
- 这些全球变化对生物多样性的协同影响仍未得到充分研究.
研究的目的:
- 评估未来气候和土地利用变化对全球陆地脊椎动物的综合影响.
- 从2015年到2100年的四个社会经济情景中评估这些影响.
主要方法:
- 评估了29,657个陆地脊椎动物物种的极端高温事件的范围暴露.
- 评估物种首选息地内的土地使用变化.
- 在各种社会经济情景下建模影响.
主要成果:
- 在最好的情况下,物种在10%的范围面临不合适的条件;最坏的情况影响52%.
- 多达7,895种物种可能面临范围广泛的极端高温和/或土地利用变化,面临灭绝的风险.
- 在萨赫勒地区,中东和巴西,协同效应的影响明显.
结论:
- 未来的环境变化对生物多样性产生重大不利影响.
- 缓解气候和土地利用变化的协同效应对于保护至关重要.
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