通过损坏和保护分析崩严重程度:一种混合XGBoost-贝叶斯网络方法
Ashutosh Dumka1, Raghupathi Kandiboina1, Aparna Joshi1
1Department of Civil Construction and Environmental Engineering, Iowa State University of Science and Technology, Ames, Iowa.
Traffic injury prevention
|December 9, 2025
概括
损坏和缺乏保护显著增加了碰撞的严重性. 在COVID后,撞车风险上升,凸显了适应性道路安全干预措施的必要性.
科学领域:
- 道路安全研究 道路安全研究
- 交通事故分析分析
- 数据科学在运输中的应用.
背景情况:
- 之前的研究往往单独分析了道路安全因素.
- 了解多个因素对事故严重性的集体影响至关重要.
- 随着COVID-19大流行,旅行模式和道路使用方式发生了重大变化.
研究的目的:
- 分析损伤,保护状态,车辆类型,年龄和道路特征对碰撞严重性的综合影响.
- 开发使用XGBoost和贝叶斯网络进行增强风险预测的混合框架.
- 通过比较COVID前后的时期来评估撞车严重程度模式的时间变化.
主要方法:
- 利用来自爱荷华州的历史事故数据 (26,111条记录).
- 采用XGBoost进行特征选择和SHAP值进行预测解释.
- 开发了一个贝叶斯网络 (树增强的天真贝叶斯) 用于概率推理和相对风险计算.
- 通过将数据细分为COVID前后时期进行时间分析.
主要成果:
- 确定损伤和缺乏保护是事故严重程度的主要驱动因素.
- 相对风险得分有效地区分了高风险群体.
- 与COVID前期相比,在COVID后期观察到相对风险得分的持续增加.
- 受到时间因素影响的碰撞风险模式的演示变化.
结论:
- 集成的XGBoost和贝叶斯网络方法为理解复杂的崩决定因素提供了一个强大的框架.
- 调查结果强调了损坏和保护状态在确定事故结果中的关键作用.
- 时间分析强调了疫情后不断变化的道路安全挑战.
- 结果支持开发有针对性,数据驱动和适应性安全干预措施.
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