由于环境温度高低而导致的非传染性疾病的负担,1990-2031年:对GBD 2021年的预测分析
Li Pu1,2, Huan-Huan Wang1, Xiang-Wei Cheng1
1Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Union Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, 430022, China.
Current medical science
|December 9, 2025
概括
与高温相关的非传染性疾病 (NCD) 正在增加,而与低温相关的非传染性疾病正在减少. 公共卫生必须调整战略,以应对这些与气候有关的健康威胁,特别是针对弱势群体.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 气候变化的影响 气候变化的影响
背景情况:
- 非传染性疾病 (NCD) 构成了全球重大健康挑战.
- 预计气候变化将加重非传染性疾病的负担.
- 了解与温度相关的NCD趋势对于公共卫生规划至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查从1990年到2021年因非最佳温度而导致的非传染性疾病的模式和趋势.
- 分析高温和低温对非传染性疾病的影响.
- 预测与温度相关的NCD负担的未来趋势.
主要方法:
- 利用的全球疾病负担研究 (GBD) 2021年数据.
- 与非最佳温度相关的非传染性疾病的评估年龄标准化死亡率 (ASR) 和DALY.
- 使用分解分析和ARIMA建模用于趋势分析和预测.
主要成果:
- 从1990年到2021年,与高温相关的非传染性疾病死亡和DALY分别增加了35%和34%.
- 与低温相关的非传染性疾病呈现下降趋势.
- 缺血性心脏病,中风和COPD是主要原因;男性和老年人最容易受到伤害.
结论:
- 与高温相关的非传染性疾病的负担显著增加.
- 需要针对不同风险概况和弱势群体量身定制的公共卫生干预措施.
- 气候适应性监测和适应性应对机制对于减轻气候介导的NCD恶化至关重要.
相关概念视频
Factors Affecting Body Temperature
8.5K
As a nurse, it is vital to understand the factors affecting body temperature to monitor variations and effectively evaluate deviations from regular.
Factors may include:
Factors may include:
8.5K
Global Climate Change
28.6K
Throughout its ~4.5 billion year history, the Earth has experienced periods of warming and cooling. However, the current drastic increase in global temperatures is well outside of the Earth’s cyclic norms, and evidence for human-caused global climate change is compelling. Paleoclimatology, the study of ancient climate conditions, provides ample evidence for human-caused global climate change by comparing recent conditions with those in the past.
28.6K
Increased Body Temperature
6.3K
A body temperature above 38°C (100.4 °F) is known as fever or pyrexia, and a person with fever is termed 'febrile.' Typically, the hypothalamus, a part of the brain that acts as the body's thermostat, regulates body temperature through a thermoregulatory setpoint. It receives signals from cold and warm thermal receptors throughout the body and adjusts the body's temperature accordingly. Fever occurs when this hypothalamic setpoint is altered, usually in...
6.3K
Requirements for Human Life
12.4K
The Earth and its atmosphere have provided humans with air, water, and food, but these are not the only requirements for survival. Humans also require a specific range of temperature and pressure that the Earth and its atmosphere provides.
Oxygen
Atmospheric air is only about 20 percent oxygen, but that oxygen is a key component of the chemical reactions that keep the body alive, including the reactions that produce ATP. Brain cells are susceptible to a lack of oxygen because they require a...
Oxygen
Atmospheric air is only about 20 percent oxygen, but that oxygen is a key component of the chemical reactions that keep the body alive, including the reactions that produce ATP. Brain cells are susceptible to a lack of oxygen because they require a...
12.4K
Homeostatic Imbalances in Body Temperature
3.7K
Hyperthermia occurs when the body's temperature becomes unusually high, often due to heat exposure, intense physical activity, or certain illnesses. This condition can create a dangerous cycle where elevated body temperature increases the metabolic rate, generating more heat and potentially leading to organ failure and brain damage. A severe form of hyperthermia, called heat stroke, can raise body temperature to life-threatening levels. Fever, on the other hand, is a controlled form of...
3.7K
Decreased Body Temperature
952
A decreased body temperature can occur in patients with hypothermia and frostbite. Heat loss with extended cold exposure overpowers the body's ability to create heat, resulting in hypothermia. Core temperature readings help classify hypothermia. Mild hypothermia is temperatures between 32 °C (89.6 °F) and 35°C (95 °F) and is caused by impaired thermoregulation. Moderate hypothermia is temperatures between 28 C (82.4 °F) and 32 °C (89.6 °F) caused by...
952
