气候敏感性是广泛的,但在动物传播疾病中分布不均
Artur Trebski1, Lewis Gourlay2, Rory Gibb2
1Science Department, Natural History Museum, London SW7 5BD, United Kingdom.
概括
气候变化对动物传播疾病产生重大影响,温度和降水通常会增加疾病风险. 需要进一步的研究来理解这些复杂的气候疾病关系.
科学领域:
- 环境科学环境科学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 传染病生态学传染病生态学
背景情况:
- 预计气候变化将使全球传染病疫情恶化.
- 动物传播疾病的气候敏感性,与载体传播或水传播疾病不同,仍未得到充分研究.
- 动物传染病源于病原体从动物水库中溢出到人类.
研究的目的:
- 对有关气候指标与动物传播疾病风险之间的关系的现有文献进行全面审查.
- 量化综合有关温度,降水和湿度如何影响全球动物传染病指标的研究结果.
- 确定当前关于气候敏感动物性疾病的研究中的差距和偏见.
主要方法:
- 使用了范围审查和定量综合方法.
- 收集了来自65个国家的218项研究的数据,涵盖了53种不同的动物传染病的852项措施.
- 分析重点是确定气候指标 (温度,降水,湿度) 与动物传播疾病风险之间的关系,主要测试线性模型.
主要成果:
- 在广泛的动物传播疾病中发现了气候敏感性的证据,检测到温度 (69.1%),降水 (63.5%) 和湿度 (53.6%) 的显著关系.
- 温度和降雨对疾病风险的积极影响比负面影响更频繁地报告.
- 在温度和载体传播的动物病之间观察到一致的积极关联,有56%的记录显示出积极的影响.
结论:
- 气候敏感性是动物传染病的共同特征,表明气候变化可能会对这些疾病的全球负担产生重大和复杂的影响.
- 这些发现突出了当前研究中的地理和分类学偏见,强调需要更严格和多样化的研究设计.
- 未来的研究应该优先考虑生物相关的模型,强大的时空控制和因果推理,以建立关于动物传播疾病气候风险关系的共识.
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