将社会孤立视为一个复杂的动态系统:一个理论和计算框架
Samuel J Abplanalp1,2, Joseph S Maimone3,4, Michael F Green5,6
1Desert Pacific Mental Illness Research, Education and Clinical Center, Veterans Affairs Greater Los Angeles Healthcare System, Los Angeles, CA, USA. sabplanalp@mednet.ucla.edu.
社会隔离,一个公共卫生问题,更好地被理解为一个复杂的动态系统. 这个框架使用数学建模来预测进入和退出隔离的过渡,帮助早期干预.
科学领域:
- 心理学 心理学 心理学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 计算科学 计算科学
背景情况:
- 社会孤立对精神和身体健康构成重大风险.
- 目前对社会孤立的出现和演变的理解是有限的.
研究的目的:
- 提出和正式化社会隔离作为一个复杂的动态系统.
- 开发一种用于分析社会隔离动态的计算模型.
- 为了证明密集的纵向数据的实用性,用于识别隔离过渡.
主要方法:
- 介绍了动态系统理论的原则.
- 使用微分方程正式制定了一个动态系统模型.
- 进行模拟以探索系统动态和参数识别能力.
主要成果:
- 模拟说明了系统动态如何影响进入社会隔离的可能性.
- 从密集的纵向数据中证明了模型参数的识别性.
- 展示了在健康和孤立状态之间识别过渡迹象的潜力.
结论:
- 动态系统框架为理解社会孤立提供了一种新的理论和计算方法.
- 这种方法可以为有风险的个人提供经验研究和个性化干预措施.
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