临床风险因素和机械通风的预测性名谱,用于患有感染相关的塑性支气管炎的儿科患者
Hongyan Peng1,2, Yiyu Yang1, Feiyan Chen1
1Department of Pediatric Intensive Care Unit, Guangzhou Women and Children's Medical Center, Guangzhou Medical University, No.318 Renmin Middle Road, Yuexiu District, Guangzhou, 510120, China.
BMC infectious diseases
|December 9, 2025
概括
年龄较小,高的PaCO2和广泛的肺部干扰预测了塑性支气管炎 (PB) 儿童的机械通风 (MV) 需求. 预测模型有助于早期风险评估,以更好地管理风险.
科学领域:
- 儿科肺病学 儿科肺病学
- 临界护理医学 临界护理医学
- 呼吸系统医学 呼吸系统医学
背景情况:
- 儿童的塑性支气管炎 (PB) 可能导致呼吸衰竭,需要机械通风 (MV).
- 目前缺乏对感染相关的PB中MV的系统风险评估.
- 这项研究解决了确定风险因素和开发预测工具的需求.
研究的目的:
- 在患有感染相关的塑性支气管炎 (PB) 的儿科患者中确定机械通风 (MV) 的临床风险因素.
- 在这些患者中开发一个预测性名谱,用于个性化风险分层.
主要方法:
- 对被诊断患有感染相关的PB的儿科患者进行了回顾性队列研究.
- 单变量和多变量逻辑回归分析以确定MV的独立风险因素.
- 使用AUC和bootstrap重新采样开发和验证预测模型和名图.
主要成果:
- 年轻的年龄,高的PaCO2和更广泛的叶片参与被确定为MV的独立风险因素.
- 使用年龄和PaCO2的预测模型实现了0.922.2的AUC.
- 诺米图表显示预测和观察结果之间存在密切一致.
结论:
- 年龄,PaCO2和叶片参与是儿童感染相关的PB中MV的关键预测因素.
- 基于年龄和PaCO2的预测模型显示了高的区别和校准.
- 开发的名录图是早期风险评估和PB个性化管理的实用工具.
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