基于无菌昆虫技术的寨卡病毒传播动态的建模,分析和最佳控制
Zongmin Yue1, Yingpan Zhang1, Xiangrui Ji1
1School of Mathematics and Data Science, Shaanxi University of Science and Technology, Xi'an, China.
Infectious Disease Modelling
|December 10, 2025
概括
无菌昆虫技术 (SIT) 通过释放无菌雄性来抑制蚊子种群,允许共存并防止寨卡病毒爆发. 这种方法通过确定关键人口值,提供了具有成本效益的疾病控制.
科学领域:
- 数学建模的数学建模
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 矢量控制是指向量控制的方法.
背景情况:
- 蚊子传播的疾病对公众健康构成重大威胁.
- 无菌昆虫技术 (SIT) 是一个有前途的载体控制策略.
- 寨卡病毒的传播涉及蚊子载体和环境通路.
研究的目的:
- 开发一种包含SIT的寨卡病毒传播的数学模型.
- 在SIT下分析人口动态,并确定关键控制值.
- 探索疾病控制的成本效益高的策略.
主要方法:
- 开发一个Zika病毒传播的动态模型.
- 整合SIT与无菌的男性释放和人口抑制.
- 动态分析以确定蚊子种群动态的关键值 (b_p,r_p).
- 在共存条件下的基本繁殖数 (R_0) 的导数.
- 应用一个多目标的最佳控制框架.
主要成果:
- 该模型确定了无菌昆虫释放率和Allee效应的关键值,确定了系统稳定性 (共存与崩).
- 病毒的复苏需要关键的野生蚊子种群密度,减轻灭绝风险.
- 基本的复制数 (R_0 > 1) 表示在共存下病毒的持久性.
- SIT有效地缓解了由环境传播驱动的早期感染传播.
- 最佳控制策略优先考虑成本最小化,以提高资源效率.
结论:
- 为了平衡蚊子抑制和疾病控制,建立了可操作的值 (b_p, r_p).
- SIT提供了一种可行的策略,用于管理像寨卡病毒这样的蚊子传播疾病.
- 该模型的见解适用于其他树状病毒疾病,如登革热和疟疾.
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