优先考虑在中国预防球菌的干预措施:对人口可归因的分数分析
Shuaiming Xu1, Quzhen Danzeng2, Bing Guo1,3
1West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, China.
The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific
|December 10, 2025
概括
在中国,通过改善饮用水安全和狗管理,可以减少人类球菌病的发生. 干预措施应优先考虑新疆,青海和四川等高发病率地区,以最大限度地影响公共卫生.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 传染病流行病学 传染病流行病学
- 一个健康,一个健康.
背景情况:
- 尽管有控制努力,人类球菌仍然是中国的重大公共卫生问题.
- 识别可修改的风险因素对于有针对性的个人级别干预至关重要.
- 这项研究量化了风险因素干预措施的潜在健康益处,以指导控制策略.
研究的目的:
- 量化中国对可修改的人类球菌病风险因素的假设干预措施的潜在健康益处.
- 通过确定干预的优先目标,为有效的公共卫生控制策略提供信息.
- 估计因可修改的风险因素而产生的可预防的球菌病负担.
主要方法:
- 收集和汇总了可修改的风险因素和球菌病发病率 (2007-2020) 的数据.
- 使用贝叶斯的层次模型,对风险因素和球菌病亚型 (囊性球菌病[CE]和气囊性球菌病[AE]) 的影响估计进行了聚合.
- 人口归因分数 (PAF) 被计算出来,以估计可预防的球菌病例负担.
主要成果:
- 确定了12个风险因素,PAFs范围从2.2%到41.2%.
- 饮用地表水 (41.2%) 和流浪狗 (34.9%) 的PAF含量最高,分别为1437例和1216例可预防的年度病例.
- 同时消除流浪狗和不安全的饮用水源显示了最大的潜在影响,特别是在新疆,青海和四川省.
结论:
- 专注于饮用水安全和负责任的狗管理的干预措施可以显著减少中国的球菌病发病率.
- 公共卫生倡议应优先考虑新疆维吾尔自治区,青海省和四川省等高流行地区,以最大限度地提高效率.
- 针对这些关键的风险因素和地区提供了一种可行的策略来控制人类球菌病.
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