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基于LASSO回归的严重超脂性急性胰腺炎预测模型的开发:一项回顾性研究

Qingyu Zhang¹, Runping Han^1,2, Zhenxing Li¹

¹Department of Gastroenterology, Taixing People's Hospital Affiliated to Yangzhou University, Taizhou, China.

|December 10, 2025

概括

鉴定严重高脂性急性胰腺炎 (HLAP) 的危险因素至关重要. 升高的D-二分体,低血和高胆固醇是早期检测和干预HLAP患者的关键指标.

科学领域:

胃肠病学和肝病学
内部医学内部医学
生物化学生化学

背景情况:

全球范围内,超脂性急性胰腺炎 (HLAP) 的发病率正在上升.
早期识别严重的HLAP风险因素对于患者的治疗结果至关重要.
开发预测模型有助于及时进行临床干预.

研究的目的:

为了确定严重的超脂性急性胰腺炎 (HLAP) 的重大风险因素.
开发和验证严重HLAP的预测模型.
改善HLAP的早期检测和管理策略.

主要方法:

从2020年1月到2023年6月对HLAP患者 (n=356) 的回顾性分析.
使用单变量分析和最小绝对收缩和选择运算符 (LASSO) 回归来进行变量选择.
构建了一个后勤回归模型,使用ROC曲线,AUC和Hosmer-Lemeshow测试进行评估.

主要成果:

单变量分析揭示了50个显著变量,区分轻度和重度的HLAP.
拉索回归确定了D-二次体,血,胆固醇,SB,总CO2和CAR作为潜在的预测因素.
最终的后勤回归模型,包括D-二元体,血和胆固醇,达到0.8341的AUC,并证明了良好的校准.

结论:

升高的D-二分体,低血和升高的胆固醇是严重HLAP的已确定的危险因素.
开发的后勤回归模型显示了严重HLAP的强大预测性能.
这个模型可以帮助临床医生在早期识别和干预严重的HLAP.

关键词:

在急性胰腺炎中,超脂血症是因为高脂血症拉索回归法 (Lasso Regression) 是一种回归法.预测模型的预测模型.风险因素风险因素

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