基于GBD 2021的中国与阿片类药物使用障碍相关的疾病负担的分析和预测
RuiYan Wang1, Yujia Liu1, XingYu Wan1
1The First School of Clinical Medicine, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China.
Frontiers in public health
|December 10, 2025
概括
中国的阿片类药物使用障碍负担在1990-2021年期间下降,但预计将增加. 女性和年轻人面临更大的负担,需要针对阿片类药物依赖的有针对性的干预措施.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 药物使用障碍 药物使用障碍
背景情况:
- 阿片类药物使用障碍 (OUD) 对全球疾病负担作出了重大贡献.
- 了解OUD趋势对于公共卫生干预和医疗保健计划至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 从1990年到2021年,分析中国的OUD疾病负担.
- 预测未来15年中国的OUD趋势.
主要方法:
- 使用的全球疾病负担 (GBD 2021) 数据用于流行,发病率,死亡率和DALYs.
- 员工结合点回归,APC模型和ARIMA用于趋势分析和预测.
- 使用社会人口统计指数 (SDI) 评估健康不平等.
主要成果:
- 到2021年,中国的OUD负担总体下降,年龄标准化死亡率大幅下降 (EAPC = -5.26).
- 女性,15-24岁的个人和最近出生的队伍表现出更高的OUD负担.
- 预测表明,在未来15年内,中国的OUD负担预计将增加.
结论:
- 尽管OUD在历史上有所下降,但在中国,OUD在未来面临着越来越大的挑战.
- 有针对性的战略对于减轻阿片类药物依赖的负担至关重要.
- 解决OUD对于改善疼痛管理和整体医疗保健结果至关重要.
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