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预计极端温度事件导致的痴呆症死亡在中国:一个气候变老适应框架

Rui Zhang¹, Yonghong Li², Huan Zheng³

¹Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Chinese Academy of Preventive Medicine), Beijing, China; National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.

|December 10, 2025

概括

气候变化和人口老龄化将在中国显著增加痴呆症死亡人数. 如果不采取适应措施,到2080年,极端温度每年可能导致超过59,000例阿尔茨海默病和其他痴呆症死亡,这凸显了减少排放和规划恢复能力的必要性.

科学领域:

环境健康环境健康
老年学是指老年学的学科.
流行病学流行病学

背景情况:

气候变化加剧了全球健康风险,但其对阿尔茨海默病和其他痴呆症 (ADD) 死亡率的具体影响尚不清楚.
中国人口老龄化对公众健康构成越来越大的挑战,特别是与年龄相关的疾病,如ADD.

研究的目的:

预测未来因阿尔茨海默病和其他痴呆症 (ADD) 导致的死亡人数,这些死亡人数归因于中国的极端温度事件.
考虑到气候变化,人口老龄化和适应策略对ADD死亡率的综合影响.
为老龄化人口制定气候适应性的公共卫生政策.

主要方法:

利用时间分层的病例交叉设计,在中国 (2013-2020年) 使用399,036例ADD死亡 (≥60岁) 来评估极端温度的死亡风险.
开发了一个集成的气候变老适应框架,包括暴露反应功能,高分辨率气候预测和人口预测.
根据各种共享社会经济路径 (SSP) - 代表性度路径 (RCP) 和2030年代,2050年代和2080年代的适应情景,预计县级ADD死亡人数.

主要成果:

如果没有适应,预计在SSP5-RCP8.5情景下,由热浪引起的ADD死亡人数将在2080年代增加11倍,达到59,088人死亡.
虽然与寒冷相关的死亡可能会减少,但热浪死亡率的增加将导致总体温度归因于ADD死亡人数的净增加.
适应措施可能会防止高达76.4%的热浪导致的ADD死亡.

结论:

气候变化和人口老龄化之间的协同作用预计将在中国显著提高痴呆症死亡率.
迫切的温室气体减排和量身定制的适应策略对于减轻预计ADD死亡人数的增加至关重要.
将痴呆症护理纳入气候适应性规划是保护脆弱老龄化人口的关键.

关键词:

阿尔茨海默病和其他痴呆症.可以归因于死亡的死亡.一个寒冷的咒语.热浪是一种热浪.预测预测预测预测

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