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Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework
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在气候变化下,一个多层面的风险操作和决策模型用于盆地间的水分转移项目
Juan Chen1, Zhen-Ran Zhang2, Yi-Fan Liang2
1College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, 210024, China; Institute of Water Transfer Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098, China.
Environmental research
|December 10, 2025
概括
本研究介绍了盆地间转水项目的风险运行模型,以改善气候不确定性下的水资源管理. 该方法通过考虑预测的变化来减少水资源短缺,增强适应性决策.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 水资源管理 水资源管理
- 适应气候变化 适应气候变化
背景情况:
- 盆地间转水项目对于平衡供水和需求至关重要.
- 气候变化和水文波动带来了重大的运营不确定性.
- 现有的模型往往无法充分解决这些动态不确定性.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个多目标的风险操作和决策模型,用于盆地间的水分转移项目.
- 尽量减少水资源短缺和转移成本,同时考虑到预测的不确定性.
- 支持水资源管理中的适应性,基于风险的决策.
主要方法:
- 制定一个多目标风险运营模式,尽量减少水资源短缺和转移成本.
- 应用多目标妖精搜索算法 (MOMSA) 来生成非主导的解决方案.
- 整合KEMIRA,最佳-最差方法 (BWM) 和数据包裹分析 (DEA) 进行风险决策.
主要成果:
- 非主导的解决方案有效地覆盖在不确定性下的确定性解决方案空间.
- 与确定性模型相比,平均缺水率下降了1.92%.
- 平均转让成本增加了63300元,反映了管理不确定性的成本.
结论:
- 拟议的风险信息化框架提高了水分转移项目的运营效率和弹性.
- 该模型有效地捕捉了多级风险,这对于在气候变化下管理水资源至关重要.
- 适应性,基于风险的决策对于可持续的盆地间水转移操作至关重要.
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