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在移民增加的时代,黑人预期寿命不断上升
Arun S Hendi1, Veronica Clevenstine1
1Office of Population Research, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, United States.
American journal of epidemiology
|December 10, 2025
概括
移民显著提高了美国的黑人预期寿命,在1994-2019年期间贡献了15%的增长. 移民增加了超过一年的黑人预期寿命,这是种族进步的关键因素.
科学领域:
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 社会学 社会学 社会学
背景情况:
- 最近,美国的死亡率状况恶化了,但黑人预期寿命有所改善.
- 从1994年到2019年,黑人女性的预期寿命增加了5年,黑人男性的预期寿命增加了7年.
- 这些收益在很大程度上归因于改善了黑人美国人的社会和经济条件.
研究的目的:
- 量化移民对美国黑人预期寿命的影响.
- 评估移民对观察到的黑人预期寿命改善的贡献.
- 分析移民在黑人死亡率趋势中的作用,特别是在COVID-19大流行期间.
主要方法:
- 对美国黑人人口人口统计趋势和预期寿命数据的分析.
- 统计建模以隔离移民对预期寿命增长的影响.
- 美国出生的黑人人口与外国出生的黑人人口之间的死亡率比较.
主要成果:
- 移民直接占1994年至2019年黑人预期寿命改善的近15%.
- 在2019年,移民增加了1.5年的男性黑人预期寿命和1.0年的女性黑人预期寿命.
- 移民使劳动年龄的死亡率降低了15%,预计未来将使整体黑人死亡率降低30%.
- 在COVID-19期间,外国出生的黑人人口的预期寿命下降了7年,远远超过美国出生的黑人人口.
结论:
- 越来越多的移民在改善黑人预期寿命方面发挥了重要而往往被忽视的作用.
- 虽然社会和经济进步是真实的,但如果不考虑移民的影响,对黑人预期寿命增长的叙述是不完整的.
- 移民是理解和预测未来美国黑人死亡率趋势的关键因素.
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