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一个基于GIS的概率框架,用于成都地铁网络的城市洪水风险评估
Qiuping Li1, Ting Ni2, Lei Li3
1College of Environment and Civil Engineering, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu, 610059, China.
Scientific reports
|December 10, 2025
概括
城市地铁系统面临洪水风险,但目前的评估缺乏不确定性分析. 本研究介绍了一种使用蒙特卡洛模拟的概率 GIS 框架,以改进地铁网络的洪水风险评估,提高抵御能力.
科学领域:
- 城市规划是城市规划.
- 环境科学环境科学
- 土木工程 土木工程是指土木工程.
背景情况:
- 城市地铁网络对洪水非常脆弱.
- 现有的洪水风险评估经常使用决定性方法,未能充分解决不确定性.
- 这种限制阻碍了对关键基础设施的有效城市洪水风险管理.
研究的目的:
- 为城市地铁网络开发基于GIS的概率性洪水风险评估框架.
- 为了明确量化专家判断中的不确定性,并纳入一个全面的指标系统.
- 为已运营和计划的地铁基础设施提供空间显式风险映射.
主要方法:
- 分析层次过程 (AHP) 与其蒙特卡洛扩展 (MC-AHP) 的整合.
- 使用β-PERT模拟来量化专家判断中的不确定性.
- 包括危险,暴露和脆弱性指标,包括乘客流量和正在施工的线路.
主要成果:
- 在成都地铁网络中发现了集中的洪水风险分布,城市核心显示出高脆弱性.
- 与传统的AHP相比,MC-AHP方法确定了更多的高风险区域,并减少了主观偏见.
- 该框架在对历史洪水事件进行验证时显示出预测可靠性.
结论:
- 概率的GIS框架通过纳入不确定性来推进城市洪水风险评估方法.
- 这项研究为提高全球地铁网络弹性提供了可概括的见解.
- 应对气候变化和城市化需要对城市基础设施进行强有力的,不确定性意识的洪水风险评估.
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