一个基于社会技术代理的模拟模型,用于预测智能农业采用动态
1Department of Agricultural Extension and Rural Society, College of Agriculture and Food Sciences, King Saud University, P. O.Box 2460, Riyadh, 11451, Saudi Arabia. yalotibi@ksu.edu.sa.
Scientific reports
|December 10, 2025
概括
一个新的模拟模型,AdoptAgriSim,通过整合社会技术因素,准确地预测智能农业技术的采用. 社会影响力显著推动了采用,强调了网络干预可持续农业的必要性.
科学领域:
- 农业经济学 农业经济学
- 技术社会学技术的社会学.
- 计算社会科学 计算社会科学
背景情况:
- 传统的模型不足以捕捉农业技术采用的社会技术因素.
- 现有的方法忽视了动态的社会互动,信任网络和异质的决策.
- 这种差距限制了智能农业的预测准确性和有效的政策设计.
研究的目的:
- 介绍AdoptAgriSim,一个基于社会技术代理的模拟模型,用于预测智能农业采用动态.
- 整合经济,社会和技术层面,形成一个统一的框架.
- 提高对农业技术传播的理解和预测.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个基于社会技术代理的模拟模型 (AdoptAgriSim).
- 雇佣多代理强化学习和社会经济网络建模.
- 纳入了一个多目标决策机制,通过信任网络平衡经济和社会学习.
主要成果:
- 在不同数据集 (美国,欧洲,印度) 的五年采用间隔中,AdoptAgriSim实现了94.2%的预测准确度.
- 该模型重现了新出现的行为,如技术集群和同行驱动的影响级联.
- 发现社会因素对采用差异的贡献比以前估计的多了34%.
结论:
- 社会因素和信任网络对于加速农业技术传播至关重要.
- 加强社会连接和网络干预可以推动可持续的农业转型.
- AdoptAgriSim为政策制定者和智能农业技术设计者提供了宝贵的见解.
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