中国长寿时代的长期护理压力的未来动态:基于离散时间马尔科夫模型的预测
Ran Feng1, Yiting Tan1, Jianyuan Huang2
1School of Public Administration, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China.
Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland)
|December 11, 2025
概括
中国中国中国中国.
科学领域:
- 老年学和人口统计学
- 公共卫生政策 公共卫生政策
- 卫生经济学 卫生经济学
背景情况:
- 解决这些问题.
- 不健康的长寿不健康的长寿
- 低收入和中等收入国家 (LMICs) 面临的挑战.
- 了解老龄化人口中不断变化的健康缺陷和护理负担.
研究的目的:
- 预测未来的长期护理需求和中国的系统压力 (2030-2100年).
- 分析老年人的人口变化和残疾趋势.
- 评估随着时间的推移,护理需求中的性别差异.
主要方法:
- 使用一个多州人口预测框架.
- 整合基于马尔科夫的健康状态过渡模型与年龄转移算法.
- 从中国纵向健康长寿调查 (CLHLS) 微数据中估计过渡概率.
主要成果:
- 预计残疾老年人的反向U形趋势将在2070年达到1.6亿,达到顶峰.
- 预计老年人中残疾人比例将从39.75%上升到45.28%.
- 突出了残疾人年人数 (PYD) 的显著增长,特别是在老年人和妇女中,性别差距越来越大.
结论:
- 无法控制的残疾趋势将使中国老龄化人口的健康风险和护理负担升级.
- 由于越来越多的护理压力,预计会产生重大经济和社会影响.
- 紧急的政策干预和系统改进对于减轻长寿时代的风险至关重要.
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