一种基于CA-PatchTST模型的太阳能阵列温度多变量趋势预测方法
Yunhai Wang1, Xiaoran Shi1, Zhenxi Zhang1
1Key Laboratory of Electronic Information Countermeasure and Simulation Technology of Ministry of Education, Xidian University, Xi'an 710071, China.
Sensors (Basel, Switzerland)
|December 11, 2025
概括
准确的太阳能阵列温度预测对于卫星的可靠性至关重要. 一种新的交叉注意力补丁时间序列变压器 (CA-PatchTST) 方法提高了多步预测的准确性,优于现有模型.
科学领域:
- 航空航天工程 航空航天工程
- 人工智能的人工智能
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
背景情况:
- 卫星系统的可靠性取决于太阳能阵列的性能,需要准确的温度预测.
- 目前的预测方法在与高维,长视界温度数据 (显示非线性和非静止动态) 进行斗争.
- 多步预测对于捕捉长期温度趋势和实现预测性维护至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为太阳能阵列温度开发一种先进的多变量趋势预测方法.
- 解决卫星热数据中复杂的时间依赖性和交叉变量相关性的挑战.
主要方法:
- 为太阳能阵列温度预测提出了一个交叉注意力补丁时间序列变压器 (CA-PatchTST) 模型.
- 使用移动平均线过器实现序列分解,以分离趋势和剩余组件.
- 使用PatchTST进行特征提取和交叉注意力进行变量间相关性分析.
主要成果:
- 与主流基线相比,CA-PatchTST模型显示出更高的性能.
- 实现了较低的根平均平方误差 (RMSE),平均绝对误差 (MAE) 和平均绝对百分比误差 (MAPE).
- 废除研究证实了序列分解和交叉注意力机制的有效性.
结论:
- 在太阳能阵列温度预测准确度方面,CA-PatchTST方法提供了显著的进步.
- 该方法有效地处理复杂的动态,并提高卫星的预测性维护能力.
- 这种方法提高了空间系统的可靠性和自主电源管理.
相关概念视频
01:20Maxwell-Boltzmann Distribution: Problem Solving
2.8K
Individual molecules in a gas move in random directions, but a gas containing numerous molecules has a predictable distribution of molecular speeds, which is known as the Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution, f(v).
This distribution function f(v) is defined by saying that the expected number N (v1,v2) of particles with speeds between v1 and v2 is given by
This distribution function f(v) is defined by saying that the expected number N (v1,v2) of particles with speeds between v1 and v2 is given by
2.8K
02:44Heating and Cooling Curves
26.4K
When a substance—isolated from its environment—is subjected to heat changes, corresponding changes in temperature and phase of the substance is observed; this is graphically represented by heating and cooling curves.
For instance, the addition of heat raises the temperature of a solid; the amount of heat absorbed depends on the heat capacity of the solid (q = mcsolidΔT). According to thermochemistry, the relation between the amount of heat absorbed or released by a substance, q, and its...
For instance, the addition of heat raises the temperature of a solid; the amount of heat absorbed depends on the heat capacity of the solid (q = mcsolidΔT). According to thermochemistry, the relation between the amount of heat absorbed or released by a substance, q, and its...
26.4K
01:18Increasing Function
290
An increasing function exhibits a rise in output values as input values increase. This behavior is depicted graphically as a curve or line that slopes upward from left to right. Such a function satisfies the condition that if x1 < x2, then f(x1) < f(x2), indicating that the function values grow with increasing inputs. This concept is fundamental in understanding growth trends across various domains, such as population dynamics, financial investments, or resource consumption.The...
290
01:13Attenuated Total Reflectance (ATR) Infrared Spectroscopy: Overview
1.1K
Attenuated total reflectance (ATR) infrared spectroscopy is a powerful analytical technique used to study the composition of materials. It is widely employed in chemistry, materials science, forensic science, and other fields where sample characterization is required. ATR has several advantages over traditional transmission IR spectroscopy, including the requirement of little to no sample preparation and the ability to analyze a wide range of samples.
The ATR process begins by directing a beam...
The ATR process begins by directing a beam...
1.1K