气候变化和息地碎片化:对科布雷西亚矮鼠 (Kobresia pygmaea) 未来分布和协助迁移的影响
Zongcheng Cai1,2,3, Fayi Li1,2,3, Shancun Bao1,2,3
1Academy of Animal Science and Veterinary, Qinghai University, Xining 810016, China.
Plants (Basel, Switzerland)
|December 11, 2025
概括
西藏高原的阿尔卑斯山植物Kobresia pygmaea息地将由于变暖而短期扩大,但长期收缩. 高度是关键,在各种气候场景 (SSP126-SSP585) 下,未来的分布向北和东北转移.
科学领域:
- 阿尔卑斯山的生态学
- 气候变化对环境的影响.
- 生物多样性保护 生物多样性保护
- 种类分布建模 种类分布建模
背景情况:
- 阿尔卑斯山的植物面临着气候变化带来的重大威胁,需要了解它们的生存和繁殖动态.
- 科布雷西亚矮鼠 (Kobresia pygmaea) 是西藏高原的一个关键的高山物种,易受气候变化的影响.
- 预测未来气候情景下的息地适应性对于有效的保护战略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 根据当前和未来的气候场景 (SSP126,SSP245,SSP370,SSP585) 预测Kobresia pygmaea的潜在息地和分布动态.
- 确定影响Kobresia pygmaea分布的关键环境因素.
- 为保护西藏高原的高山生态系统提供科学基础.
主要方法:
- 利用了273个有效的Kobresia pygmaea的分布点.
- 使用MaxEnt (最大) 模型进行息地预测.
- 分析了各种共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 下的分布动态,用于未来的气候场景 (2050-2070年代),包括中心位置转移分析.
主要成果:
- 高度 (3527.99-6054.54米) 是影响Kobresia pygmaea分布的主要因素.
- 目前适宜的息地集中在西藏高原 (1.13 × 10^5 km^2).
- 未来的适用区域显示出最初的扩张 (特别是2050年代的SSP126),随后的收缩 (在2070年代的高排放场景下),高适用区域的显著减少.
- 息地向北/东北转移,在低排放场景下范围扩大,在2070年代高排放场景下收缩.
结论:
- 短期变暖可能有利于Kobresia pygmaea通过减轻低温压力,促进向上和极向扩张.
- 长期和加剧的气候变暖通过破坏核心息地对长期持续存在构成重大威胁.
- 适应性管理策略对于在气候变化下保护西藏高原的阿尔卑斯山生态系统和Kobresia pygmaea至关重要.
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