预测中国的Seriphidium transiliense息地:整合气候变化和人类活动的影响
Wenxiong Li1, Guili Jin1, Yixuan Pan1
1Xinjiang Agriculture University Urumqi Xinjiang China.
Ecology and evolution
|December 11, 2025
概括
由于气候变化和人类活动,中国西北地区的Seriphidium transiliense息地正在减少. 保护工作至关重要,以保护这一关键的草原物种.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 保护生物学 保护生物学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 在中国西北的干旱和半干旱的沙漠草原中,Seriphidium transiliense是至关重要的.
- 气候变化和人类活动威胁着它的息地,导致碎片化和退化.
研究的目的:
- 评估S. transiliense息地的分布模式和动态变化.
- 评估当前和未来气候情景和人类活动的影响.
主要方法:
- 使用了159个发生点的MaxEnt模型.
- 整合了20个环境变量 (生物气候,土壤,地形,太阳辐射,人类足迹).
- 分析了当前和六个未来的气候场景 (SSP126,SSP245,SSP585).
主要成果:
- 目前适合息地:86.20 × 10^4平方公里,集中在新疆北部.
- 人类活动使适用面积总面积减少到75.78 × 10^4平方公里.
- 非常适合的息地从5.72 × 10^4 km2减少到2.00 × 10^4 km2.
- 未来的气候可能会扩大范围,但人类活动仍然是一个威胁,特别是在非常适合的地区.
- 分布中心向东南或西北移动,不同气候场景下海拔变化.
结论:
- 人类活动大大减少了S. transiliense的息地,特别是高度适合的地区.
- 未来气候变化的影响是复杂的,可能会扩大范围,但不会否定人类的威胁.
- 科学管理,监测和再播种对于S. transiliense的保护和生态恢复至关重要.
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