蚊子载体生态正在由于气候变化而变得不稳定
Evan J Curcio1,2,3, Kai Xu2,4, Harutyun Sahakyan2
1City University of New York Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, New York, NY, United States.
Research square
|December 11, 2025
概括
全球范围内,气候变化正在扩大携带疾病的艾迪斯蚊子的息地. 这增加了蚊子传播疾病的风险,特别是在美国和欧盟等温带地区.
科学领域:
- 环境科学环境科学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 机器学习 机器学习
背景情况:
- 蚊子传播的传染病对全球健康和经济构成重大威胁.
- 蚊子种群的地理和季节性模式的变化使疾病预防工作复杂化.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证一个机器学习模型来预测Aedes蚊子的可居住性.
- 提供高分辨率的全球估计,从1970年到2024年的Aedes可居住性.
- 评估与蚊子传播疾病相关的全球风险的变化.
主要方法:
- 利用在卫星和蚊子观测数据上训练的机器学习方法.
- 在数据有限的地区预测可居住性方面实现了更好的概括性.
- 以高空间分辨率生成全球可居住性估计,分为五年增量.
主要成果:
- 在大多数研究生态中发现了不稳定趋势.
- 观察到赤道附近的Aedes可居住性风险下降,在温带地区 (例如美国,欧盟,中国) 增加.
- 尽管赤道地区的风险相对于历史平均水平有所降低,但它们仍然是高风险地区.
结论:
- 这项研究表明,全球适合Aedes蚊子的地区有着显著的扩张.
- 暴露于蚊子传播疾病的全球人口的持续,线性增长.
- 机器学习为了解和预测在不断变化的环境条件下疾病载体分布提供了强大的工具.
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