通过综合指标评估的服务交付差异的统计方法:适用于乌干达地方政府
Hillary Muhanguzi1, Francesca Bassi2, Yeko Mwanga3
1Department of Statistical Methods and Actuarial Sciences, Makerere University, Uganda.
PloS one
|December 11, 2025
概括
预算上的限制,分县的分裂,以及距离首都的距离,阻碍了乌干达地方政府的服务提供. 这些因素对基本服务产生重大影响,因此需要采取更广泛的综合指标方法,以便更好地评估.
科学领域:
- 公共管理 公共管理
- 发展研究 发展研究 研究
- 计量经济学 计量经济学 计量经济学
背景情况:
- 评估地方政府的服务提供对于公平发展至关重要.
- 现有的指标可能无法充分捕捉跨部门提供服务的复杂性.
- 乌干达地方政府在提供教育,卫生和水务服务方面面临着独特的挑战.
研究的目的:
- 开发和评估乌干达地方政府提供服务的综合指标.
- 确定影响服务交付绩效的关键决定因素.
- 在建模服务交付中比较β回归,通用增量模型 (GAM) 和随机森林回归的有效性.
主要方法:
- 使用最小值转换,相同权重和乘法聚合,创建了一个复合指标.
- 采用β回归,GAM和随机森林回归来对决定因素进行复合指标建模.
- 使用平均平方误差 (RMSE) 和平均绝对误差 (MAE) 评估预测准确度.
主要成果:
- 综合指标得分从0.25到0.60不等,许多地方政府得分低于0.5.5.
- 预算限制,分县的分裂以及与首都的地理距离是重大障碍.
- 这三种建模方法的预测准确性是可比的 (RMSE ≈0.05).
结论:
- 预算,结构和地理因素严重阻碍了乌干达的地方政府服务提供.
- 贝塔回归,GAM和随机森林回归是有效的,可比的方法来评估服务交付结果.
- 未来的复合指标应该包括更广泛的服务维度和预测指标,可能使用分组β回归来进行增强的建模.
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