预防性护理支出与死亡率之间的长期关系的经济学分析:经合组织国家的证据,1970-2019年
Mehdi Ammi1, Farzaneh Davarzani1
1School of Public policy and Administration, Carleton University, 1125 Colonel By Dr, Ottawa, ON K1S 5B6 Canada.
概括
对预防保健的公共支出显示,在经合组织国家减少死亡率和提高预期寿命方面,其长期影响很小. 早期疾病检测和免疫计划是这种效应的关键驱动力.
科学领域:
- 卫生经济学 卫生经济学
- 公共卫生政策 公共卫生政策
- 计量经济学 计量经济学
背景情况:
- 公共卫生对预防保健的支出有所增加,但其对死亡率的长期影响仍然不确定.
- 预防护理对死亡率的影响可能只会在较长时间内显现出来.
研究的目的:
- 实证地研究公共预防保健支出与死亡率之间的长期关系.
- 分析预防性护理支出对65岁预期寿命的影响.
- 确定特定的预防性护理子类别,从而减少死亡率.
主要方法:
- 采用了一种最近的计量经济学方法,即动态常见相关效应 (DCCE) 面板错误纠正模型.
- 为37个经合组织国家 (1970-2019) 构建了一个不平衡的死亡率和公共预防支出纵向数据集.
- 考虑到共同整合,跨界依赖和各国之间的异质性.
主要成果:
- 经合组织国家死亡率的长期预防性护理支出弹性为-0.10.
- 在65岁的预期寿命中观察到 +0.04 的正弹性.
- 早期疾病检测和免疫计划被确定为减少死亡率的重要驱动力.
结论:
- 在经合组织国家,更高的公共支出用于预防性护理与长期死亡率的降低有关,尽管效应规模不大.
- 预防性护理支出与降低死亡率之间的因果关系得到了格兰杰非因果关系测试的支持.
- 与住院和门诊医疗保健支出相比,预防性护理支出与降低死亡率的相关性更为一致.
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