不同的碳中立战略在中国引起了实质上不同的健康益处和分配影响
Da Gao1,2, Chenfei Qu3, Bin Zhao1,2
1State Key Laboratory of Regional Environment and Sustainability, School of Environment, Tsinghua University, 100084 Beijing, China.
Environmental science & technology
|December 12, 2025
概括
中国雄心勃勃的2060年碳中和目标提供了显著的健康益处. 一个高太阳能和风能战略预计可以通过改善空气质量来避免150万例过早死亡,提供最大的公共卫生和经济优势.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 能源政策 能源政策
背景情况:
- 中国2060年碳中和目标对公共卫生和空气质量至关重要.
- 关于不同碳中和战略的健康益处和经济影响存在不确定性.
研究的目的:
- 研究中国实现碳中和的各种技术途径对健康的益处.
- 分析与不同情景相关的空气质量改善和过早死亡减少.
- 评估这些战略的经济影响和分配影响.
主要方法:
- 为实现碳中和建立了三个代表性的技术途径.
- 环境和室内空气质量的量提升 (PM2.5).
- 估计避免过早死亡和计算的净经济效益在不同的场景和收入水平.
主要成果:
- 太阳能和风能高的场景可以显著降低PM2.5度 (6.0μg m−3环境,7.0μg m−3室内) 并避免150万例过早死亡.
- 这种情景的净效益是高生物质或高碳捕获和储存情景的5.9倍.
- 低收入省份在太阳能和风能高的场景下面面临的成本不成比例地更高.
结论:
- 高太阳能和风能通道为实现中国碳中和目标提供了最实质性的健康和经济效益.
- 分配政策是必要的,以减轻低收入省份的财政负担,并确保公平的过渡.
- 平衡环境,健康和经济因素的综合战略对于可持续发展至关重要.
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