在玉米串状病毒中对随机延迟动态的计算分析
Sana Iqbal1, Naveed Shahid1, Ali Raza2,3
1Department of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Lahore, Lahore, Pakistan.
PloS one
|December 12, 2025
概括
这项研究开发了一种新型的随机模型来分析玉米菌株病毒 (MSV) 传播动态,将时间延迟和不确定性纳入更现实的农业疾病模拟.
科学领域:
- 植物病理学 植物病理学
- 计算生物学 计算生物学
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 玉米串状病毒 (MSV) 对全球玉米生产构成重大威胁.
- 了解MSV传播动态对于有效的疾病管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 使用计算和随机建模分析MSV传输动态.
- 将时间延迟和不确定性因素纳入流行病模型.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个分区MSV确定性模型,扩展到一个随机延迟差分系统.
- 采用了平衡分析的分析方法,并得出了治疗复制号.
- 比较的数值方法包括欧勒-马鲁雅马,随机Runge-Kutta和随机非标准有限差异 (NSFD) 方案.
主要成果:
- 理论分析证实了在特定参数值下平衡点的稳定性.
- 与经典方法相比,随机NSFD方案表现出优越的稳定性,积极性保护和步骤大小独立性.
- 整合随机性通过捕捉现实世界的传输不确定性,提高了预测模拟的有效性.
结论:
- 拟议的随机NSFD模型为模拟MSV和其他植物病毒流行病提供了一种计算效率高和生物现实的方法.
- 这些发现提高了对农业疾病控制战略的理解和信息.
- 这项研究为管理植物病毒爆发提供了强大的工具.
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